America's college-aged population is declining. Universities will have to make cuts.

As America's population ages and some state populations are expected to decline, demographic shifts may profoundly reshape the country's colleges and universities.

Academics have long worried about the enrollment cliff, a multiyear decline in traditional college-aged students following an anticipated peak in 2025. Although the total number of undergraduate students at America's universities rose steadily from approximately 7.3 million in 1970 to around 18 million in 2010, enrollment has stagnated, with enrolled this past fall, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

Partly due to a drop in birth rates following the 2008 financial crises, the nation's college-aged population is expected to decline over the next five to 10 years by as much as 15%. While declines are not uniform nationwide, college enrollment is expected to fall dramatically in some states, and universities have already made painful cuts in anticipation.

believe some kind of postsecondary degree or certificate is valuable, according to a 2024 Gallup and Lumina Foundation report. However, the report found significant barriers to both enrolling in and completing a degree, with 1 in 3 adults enrolled in college having considered dropping out, largely due to concerns about mental health and the cost of tuition.

At the same time, an increasing number of American adults have little or no confidence in a college education, with that number surging from 10% in 2015 to , according to a 2024 Gallup survey.

The rise of online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic, a decline in the college-aged population, and concerns that a college degree provides diminishing returns as tuition rises and some jobs diminish together put the future of some programs and institutions at risk.

looked at data from the University of Virginia's and elsewhere to see which states are expected to experience the biggest population drops through 2050.

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Declines in youth populations vary by region, leading to uncertainty in higher ed

America's population is getting older, with the number of people aged 75 to 79 anticipated to , a July 2024 Cooper Center study found. The demographic of those aged 80 to 84 is expected to grow by 81%, from 6.3 million in 2020 to 11.5 million in 2050.

However, the population projection found that the number of anticipated college-aged students is expected to decline in many states nationwide in the coming decades. The Department of Education, on the other hand, anticipates the number of high school graduates will .

Although the total population of college-aged students is expected to increase by 6% to around 23.3 million by 2050, the figure pales in comparison to the anticipated 12% increase in the overall population of the United States during the same time period, the study found.

The slowing rate of growth among college-aged students is expected to have the greatest impact in regions like the Northeast and Midwest, where states like Connecticut (-14.4%), Illinois (-16.6%), and West Virginia (-18.6%) are each expected to experience double-digit population declines by 2050.

Conversely, the cohort of college-aged students is expected to increase in the Southeast in states like Florida (24.5%) and Georgia (15.3%) and in Mountain West states like Colorado (25.2%) and Nevada (24.8%) that have more remote populations.

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What's next for higher education?

Public universities and smaller schools, particularly those that aren't centers of research or athletic powerhouses, may also be at risk.

Some universities have already recalibrated in light of enrollment declines and budget cuts. In Pennsylvania, the state redesigned its university system by consolidating institutions, creating two regional universities out of six existing universities in the western and northeastern parts of the state. Enrollment has declined in these areas in recent decades, with more students opting to enroll in online classes instead of living on campus.

While some smaller colleges and universities with consistently declining enrollment might be at risk of closing in the coming years, the could be the biggest change in American institutions, according to a report by the Brookings Institute.

Public universities in states where growth among young people is expected to slow or decline will likely be the hardest hit by the demographic trend, with some already making cuts.

West Virginia University announced it was cutting around 5% of faculty positions and dropping 28 of its majors as the state university grapples with a and a 10% decline in enrollment since 2015, the Associated Press reported.

Deep cuts also were made at St. Cloud State University, one of the largest schools in Minnesota, where full-time student enrollment has dropped by more than half since 2010. The university made drastic budget reductions to its music department among cuts to 42 majors, eliminated its football team, and reduced its faculty by 54 members.

Whether large or small, college towns across the country often serve as hubs of employment in the area. Closures or drastic cuts to the institutions that anchor these towns will likely harm the local economies.

Only time will tell how higher education will fare amid drastic shifts. Amid ongoing demographic changes, cuts will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

Story editing by Alizah Salario. Additional editing by Kelly Glass. Copy editing by Paris Close. Photo selection by Ania Antecka.

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