For Latter-day Saints, the retention decline is more than a people problem
For Latter-day Saints, the retention decline is more than a people problem
In a video clip that has ricocheted across social media about The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a retired high-level leader chastises fellow members considering departing the faith, admonishing, âDarth Vader could be your bishop,â he states, âthe culture could be like Alcatraz, and it will not drive you away.â
, who served as a general authority Seventy from 2008 to 2019, doesnât stop there.
âSome claim church culture is driving people away,â he continues. âThe members feel unseen, disconnected, empty and the solution they say is a transformation to a more open, inclusive, transparent, loving and tolerant culture wherein more people can comfortably gather.â
But that, he argues, misses the point entirely.
âThe ultimate question is not, âDo I fit in?ââ he explains in the , part of a series produced by the independent advocacy organization . âThe ultimate question is: Is the church true?â
If the answer is yes, he concludes, tears brimming in his eyes, âthen you will stay â come what may.â
Part plea and part exhortation, the message comes at a as headlines flash the same dire warning: The faith, heralded by experts as recently as the 1990s as on track to becoming one of the worldâs dominant religions, is failing to retain a growing number of its U.S. members, reports.
The church is far from alone in confronting this problem. Nonetheless, the phenomenon carries a special sting for the missionary-minded faith, say scholars of Mormonism, who argue it represents not only a people problem, but, as a religion that views itself as the one and only true church, also a theological knot in need of untangling.
Reflecting on the messages he heard growing up in the quickly expanding church of the 1980s and â90s, Latter-day Saint historian Patrick Mason recalls, âit wasnât always so crass as to say because weâre growing fast we are true. But oftentimes it was only a half step away from that.â
For a faith that views itself as the answer to biblical prophecy and the only âtrue and livingâ church on earth, growth was a sign of Godâs favor. So what does it mean now that it has slowed?
A look at the numbers
To be sure, the news isnât all grim for the Utah-based faith of 17.8 million members.
In July, the church set for the number of full-time missionaries, although whether this represents the beginning of a trend or a high-water mark . And, in 2025, it enjoyed the largest number of (385,490) in its 196-year history.
But attracting new adherents is one thing. Keeping them is another.
Retention is not a new challenge. that, as of the late 20th century, only about a quarter of international Latter-day Saint converts and half of U.S. converts were attending church a year after baptism. And as independent researcher Matt Martinich this spring, retention beyond that year mark is â and was â a far greater challenge.
âThe problem is after two years, five years, 10 years, that number goes down substantially,â Martinich said. âSo the bigger problem is retention for the medium to long term.â
What appears to be new is the degree of decline among those born in the faith who remain actively engaged as adults.
A slew of recent analyses and studies, from church-owned Brigham Young University, agree: raised in the church as adults.
Zoom in on those attending meetings with some regularity and the number drops to about 4 in 10, and even fewer for Generation Z women. In fact, women are now more likely to leave the fold than men, the BYU report observes.
Compare those numbers to an estimated 8 in 10 just a few decades ago, when declared that the church was on track to boast 63 million to 265 million members by 2080.
âYou had these statistics,â Mason, , explains, âthat validated this internal theological narrative that this was the place where God was really doing his work in the world.â
Fast-forward to today and the church has yet to crack 18 million.
Are liberal politics and social media to blame?
If church leaders have settled on a narrative to explain this downshift, Latter-day Saint historian and writer Kristine Haglund hasnât heard it.
âThe failure to develop a coherent response is part of the problem,â she muses. âIt conveys we donât care, which I donât actually think is true. Still, its absence can feel like neglect.â
Within that vacuum, she says, âone-offâ sentiments emerge â some better informed than others but none actually representative of âan institutional position.â
Case in point: Corbridgeâs declaration that âbelief trumps discomfort.â
Mason has described watching a range of framings emerge from unofficial sources, mostly focused on the outside world and its supposed decay.
for the church-owned Deseret News, for instance, BYU religion professor points to , blaming them in particular for the decline of membership among young women.
These forces, she argues, are saturated in beliefs that prize the individual over the community and are inherently suspicious of institutions.
âCan you see,â the co-author of the on retention writes, âwhy it may be difficult for a Latter-day Saint millennial woman embracing these philosophies popular among peers to stay committed to a faith tradition that is at odds with much of the prevailing cultural zeitgeist of the day?â
Pro-church social media accounts, meanwhile, are rife with messages accusing feminists, âactivist therapistsâ and âwoke ideologyâ for peeling away the young while also infiltrating and corrupting church culture, thus driving away would-be faithful members.
A predicted outcome
At the same time, feminists who have been predicting for years that a downturn among women loomed shoulders much of the blame.
âReported membership loss must be understood in the context of five decades of significant institutional pressures on Mormon women,â scholar , author of â,â says, listing as examples everything from the churchâs to its opposition to the .
Heather Sundahl, co-author of â,â offers a similar explanation, stressing that young women today are more attuned to â and put off by â gender imbalances than their predecessors.
âI can remember teaching about the Godhead in Primary,â she says, referring to the church program for children, âand one girl commenting in frustration, âSo what youâre saying is a ghost can be part of the Godhead but not a girl?ââ
Latter-day Saint that the Holy Ghost, or Holy Spirit, is part of the three-member Godhead along with Heavenly Father and Jesus Christ.
Celebrating new metrics
The way Mason sees it, there is one step church leaders have taken to at least refocus the narrative of growth and any challenges to it.
âIf you believe that truth is associated with progress and that more is better,â he says, âthen youâve got to come up with another metric. And I think thatâs exactly what President gave the church with temple building.â
The former leader announced 200 new edifices, accounting for more than half the faithâs temples.
His successor, President Dallin H. Oaks, is taking a different route, nixing the practice of announcing new temples at General Conference in favor of where the sacred buildings would be located.
Instead, Mason observes, his interest seems to be in promoting growth metrics that deal specifically with youth retention â the number of missionaries serving, for instance.
âThere always has to be something that you can hang your hat on as the good news,â Mason says. âI think this is both external-facing, but also internal-facing, a way to rally the troops and get people to feel good about the enterprise.â
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